The electricity policies of the BBIN countries generally focus on providing electricity to every household. Their major objectives are supply reliable and quality electricity in an efficient manner at reasonable rates and to protect consumers’ interests. The issues the BBIN countries try to address include power generation, transmission, distribution, rural electrification, research and development, environmental concerns, energy conservation and human resource training. The governments of the BBIN countries are increasingly focusing on efficient, innovative and advanced technology-driven methods for power production.
The policy makers of the BBIN countries are aware of the sub-region’s enormous renewable energy resources, including hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass—which can be harnessed for domestic and industrial use as well as expansion of multilateral power trade and cooperation. With the economies of the BBIN countries are likely to grow in the coming years as projected by several studies, there will be a corresponding rise in the demand for electricity in the sub-region. As the BBIN nations predominantly depend on fossil fuels fore meeting their energy needs, which also includes electricity, the sub-region also faces significant climate change concerns. Reports say the share of carbon dioxide emissions through fossil fuels for the power sector in South Asia was 44% in 2021.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s power sector has been a major area of concern for the successive governments. The South Asian nation has been confronting severe power shortages since its inception. The country faces a daily shortage of at least 1,500 MW of electricity retarding the growth of the economy. In 2010, Bangladesh’s electricity consumption per capita was one of the lowest in Asia, with only 41% of the population had access to electricity. In 2011, the country had total generation capacity of 8, 525 MW. Then, power production was primarily dependent on natural gas, which is an indigenous resource with minimum hydro and renewable capacity.
Studies found that more than 75% of the country’s commercial electricity demand in 2011 was met by natural gas. Bangladesh had 79 natural gas wells in the 23 operational gas fields, which were producing 2,000 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMCFD). This was significantly short of over 2,500 MMCFD, a number which had been growing about 7% each year over the last decade. Depleting natural gas resources and limited hydropower potential still remains a challenge for Bangladesh. In its attempts to meet the growing electricity demand in the country, the Bangladesh is increasingly focusing on renewable sources of energy.
After the assumption of power in December 2009, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) government resolved to provide electricity to all households by 2021 as envisioned in the PSMP 2010. The AL government also took several key measures to revitalise Bangladesh’s moribund power sector. As a result, people’s access to electricity increased to 68% in 2017. The total installed power generation capacity in Bangladesh had also risen to 13,179 MW in March 2017.
Likewise, the country’s energy consumption per capita also rose to 317 KWh. Reports say the country’s overall energy consumption increased quickly during 2010-16 (5.5%/year on average), driven by rapid economic growth (6.3%/year on average) in the same period. The AL government has set a goal to increase its gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 8% annually, which requires the power supply to grow at a rate of 10% a year. As per the data of Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), a state-owned agency, the country’s grid power generation was 22,482 MW on August 1, 2022, which has risen to 24,911 MW on August 1, 2023, indicating the installed capacity’s increase by 2,429 MW in the last one year.
The BPDB recently informed that over 6,000 MW of installed capacity would be added to the national grid in the next six months raising the country’s power generation capacity to about 31,000 MW as a number of new power plants, which have already been connected to the grid or under process to be connected soon. At present, fossil fuels comprise a whopping 92.57% of Bangladesh’s total installed power generation capacity. According to the latest BPDB data, 46.53% of the country’s electricity is produced from natural gas, 26.06% from heavy fuel oil (HFO), 16.81% from coal, 3.17% from high-speed diesel (HSD), 0.92% from hydro, 1.84% from solar, and the remaining 4.66% comes from imports.
Bangladesh confronted serious electricity and fuel shortages during 2020-22 threatening the country’s burgeoning economic growth. The neighbouring country experienced prolonged power cuts even in the capital city Dhaka, resulting in the fall of production in major export-oriented industries, especially the readymade garments (RMG) sector which accounts for nearly 85% of export earnings. Reports suggest that the situation further aggravated in early October 2021 when Bangladesh suffered a grid failure that left nearly 80% of the country without power. The power crisis in Bangladesh, which is a perennial problem, was heightened by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the resultant huge rise in oil and gas prices.
The global hike in prices compelled Bangladesh to halt purchase of oil and gas, and shut down scores of diesel-run power plants. In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Bangladesh has fully realised that it needs to gradually reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for power generation and focus on renewable sources to ensure energy security and sustainable development. In some of Bangladesh’s rural areas, which are not accessible to conventional grid-based electricity, now meet their power needs through a rooftop solar panel programme. This is a significant step towards achieving Bangladesh’s nationally determined contributions target of 10% renewable energy of total power generation.
In its bids to meet Bangladesh’s ever increasing power demand, China being a major development partner is assisting the country in the arena of renewable energy. In early 2019, Bangladesh inked a $ 400 million joint venture deal with a Chinese company to build renewable energy projects to supply a total of 500 MW of power by 2023. In another development on September 11, 2019, a Chinese-built solar power project called Kaptai Solar Power Plant producing 7.4 MW of power was made operational in the hilly and peripheral southeastern district of Rangamati.
Bangladesh is also constructing its biggest $12.65 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) with 90% Russian financial support. Russia’s state-run Rosatom is extending full technical assistance in the project’s execution. The RNPP is expected to meet Bangladesh’s growing electricity requirements and contribute to the country’s socio-economic development. The plant, which is expected to be commissioned by the end of 2023, is situated in the western district of Pabna. The RNPP consists of two units, each having a capacity of 1,200 MW. After its operationalisation, the RNPP will be Bangladesh’s largest power generation plant.
Bangladesh’s over dependence on fossil fuels for power generation has raised concern in the international community as the country is facing existential threats from various climate change effects. Reports say the power and energy sectors currently contribute nearly 55% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to the United Nations Organisation’s (UNO) estimate, power and energy sectors will account for more than 76% of Bangladesh’s GHG emissions by 2030. In the Conference of Parties (CoP) 26 of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change at Glasgow in November 2021, Bangladesh pledged to generate 40% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2050 from less than 3% now as part of its climate change mitigation efforts.
In order to realise this goal, the AL government is changing the focus of power investments away from coal, oil and natural gas. To achieve its renewable energy target as outlined in the PSMP and to ensure sustainable socio-economic development (sustainable development goals or SDGs, under the UN Sendai Framework), Bangladesh needs international investments worth $ 80-100 billion between 2030 and 2050. Reports suggest that the AL government has already initiated the process of negotiations with its key development partner countries and international donor agencies, including Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank (WB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
Dr Rupak Bhattacharjee is an Assam-based independent public and foreign policy analyst. He can be reached at: [email protected].