written by Barasha Das
- Assam’s power generation still heavily relies on fossil fuel sources, though there is a steady transition to renewable energy.
- A report by think tank, iFOREST, claims that Assam’s low perceived potential for renewable energy generation is an obstacle in its progress towards clean energy.
- The think tank reassesses the state’s potential for renewable energy, estimating a higher potential than previously thought, and calls for increasing renewable ambitions.
Assam is intensifying its climate action efforts by transitioning to greener energy grids in which it aims to increase its capacity of grid-connected energy from renewable or cleaner sources. However, the state has higher renewable energy (RE) potential, than assessed by the government, according to a recent study conducted by the International Forum for Environment, Sustainability, and Technology (iFOREST), an independent environmental research think tank. The current perception that Assam has low RE potential is one of the factors hindering the state’s progress in renewable energy segment.
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy’s (MNRE) 2022-23 report estimates Assam’s RE potential (as of 2022) to be 14,235 MW which includes 13,760 MW from solar, 53 MW from wind, 212 MW from biomass and about 202 MW from small hydro, and 8 MW from waste-to-energy sources.
However, iFOREST’s reassessment study based on updated satellite data and assumptions indicates that the state has a theoretical potential of 27,748 MW of solar ground-mounted capacity, 883 MW of floating solar capacity, and 1,621 MW of solar rooftop capacity. It also estimates a cumulative theoretical potential for biomass power to be around 2,419 GW.
The iFOREST report noted that the potential assessed by MNRE is suggestive and based on simplistic assumptions and general rules, which may not be sufficient to guide policymakers and developers/investors in strategising and achieving the required RE capacity development in the state. Therefore, a more detailed assessment of the state’s RE potential for each technology segment is needed, including identifying specific sites based on updated data and assumptions.
Highlighting the need to enhance states’ role in RE growth, Mandvi Singh, Programme Director, Clean Energy and Climate Change Programme at iFOREST, stated, “The current challenge for the country is that the existing RE capacity is concentrated in just a few regions. Only 7-8 states (of 28 states and 8 union territories) account for over 80% of the total renewable energy capacity.”
“If the overall national ambitions of reaching 500 GW and eventually becoming net zero are to be achieved, all states must contribute,” she said, referring to enhancing the role of states such as Assam and Odisha, that have low RE contributions.
High solar, biomass potential
The iForest report examines different RE sectors concluding that Assam has more potential for renewable energy than the government estimates suggest.
Owing to its prolonged rainy season, geographical features, terrain conditions, and ecological sensitivity, Assam has relatively lower solar insolation (quality of sunlight) intensity and limited land availability for solar plant installations – two critical factors that determine the state’s potential for solar energy. However, the report states that while Assam’s average insolation (352 W/sq m) is lower than most states, its peak insolation (959 W/sq m) is higher than in typically solar-generating states such as Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Gujarat. Additionally, notes the report, Germany, with an average insolation of 229 W/sq m and a peak of 892 W/sq m, lower than that of Assam, has installed over 80 GW of solar capacity, suggesting Assam’s potential for solar development.
iFOREST suggests that, given the geographical and weather constraints and the low availability of wastelands, considerations can be relaxed regarding opening more wasteland for solar power installation for states like Assam. Reportedly, the central government is considering reassessing the resource utilisation norms.
iFOREST mapped 11,061.75 sq km of wasteland (including scrub land, degraded forest, waterlogged areas, mining and industrial wasteland among others) using 2019 satellite images from ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre. Excluding areas prone to floods or landslides and unsuitable for solar installation, the study concluded that 390.4 sq km of land has been deemed suitable for solar panel installation. Assuming an area utilisation of 3.5 acres (0.014 sq. km.) per MW, it estimates that the available wasteland can support about 27,748 MW of ground-mounted solar installations, which is twice the assessment suggested by MNRE.
The report also estimates a potential of 235 MW to 883 MW of floating solar capacity in Assam. The state government is currently developing several floating solar projects with a total capacity of 120 MW. However, iFOREST notes that there is no official guidance on the state’s estimated floating solar potential.
Rooftop solar potential, according to the report, is estimated to be 1,621 MW, of which 1,456 MW is located in urban areas and 156 MW in rural areas, in Assam.
Singh added, “The benefits of adopting rooftop solar are evident in other states. There are excellent schemes available from governments to support adoption, even for economically disadvantaged consumers. Therefore, people should seize the opportunity, as it contributes to the overall growth of green energy but, more importantly, helps reduce their electricity bills.”
Beyond solar, the study conducted a reassessment of Assam’s wind energy potential. Overall, Assam’s wind energy generation potential is limited due to relatively lower wind speeds, except for a few identified locations that provide adequate conditions for wind energy development. iFOREST reviewed areas with the minimum wind speed required for turbines to generate power. Ten feasible sites were identified across several districts.
Finally, considering the state’s gross annual cultivated area of 38,883 sq km, with 24,179 sq km dedicated to cereal production, Assam has significant potential to generate power from biomass, which remains largely untapped, the report says. Mapping and estimation by iFOREST revealed that Assam produces 4,214 kilotonnes of gross biomass, almost exclusively from rice. Of this, 562 kilotonnes is surplus biomass, comprising 30% from kharif rice and 70% from rabi rice. Based on this, the report estimates a cumulative theoretical potential for biomass power to be around 2,419 GW.
Shifting to renewables
In the last couple of years, the Assam government has been making a push for increasing its renewable energy capacity. The most recent being the state budget for 2024-25 which has proposed mandatory rooftop solar installations for all new government and private buildings, with an allocation of Rs. 100 million for energy audits of government buildings. The “Green Growth for a Greener Assam” initiative in the budget focuses on electric vehicles and renewable energy.
Previously, in November 2022, the Government of Assam introduced the Assam Renewable Energy Policy (AREP) to create an enabling environment for businesses and developers to attract new investments. The AREP 2022 targets a capacity addition of 1,200 MW, including 620 MW from grid-connected solar projects, 300 MW from grid-connected rooftop projects, 80 MW from off-grid solar, and 200 MW from other sources such as small hydro, pump storage, biomass, and solid waste. This target is in addition to the 1,000 MW of RE capacity proposed under the Mukhya Mantri Souro Shakti Prokolpo project announced in 2022-23.
Speaking at the event organised by iForest, Bibhu Bhuyan, managing director of Assam Power Generation Corporation Limited (APGCL), stated, “While the majority of our installations are currently gas-based, we plan to expand our generation capacity to 2,000 MW by 2030, of which 92% will be through RE sources.”
Experts underline the need to emphasise renewable energy because a major chunk of energy in Assam comes from fossil fuels. Recent data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) shows that of the 9,429.34 million units (MU) of electricity generated by the state between April 2023 and March 2024, RE accounted for only 10.56%, which is half the national average of 23.52%. Assam’s energy mix is predominantly thermal power, with 69% of its 2,037 MW installed capacity coming from fossil fuels (36% gas-based and 29% coal-based). Only 31% of the capacity is RE, including 26% from hydro projects and 5% from other RE sources.
As per the latest data (June 13), in Assam, out of a total installed capacity of 1,890 MW, 192 MW is sourced from renewable energy, constituting approximately 10.16% of its energy mix. In contrast, India boasts a significantly higher renewable energy penetration, with 143,645 MW of renewable energy capacity out of a total installed capacity of 441,970 MW, translating to around 32.51%.
Refining policy pathway
iFOREST notes that structural challenges are slowing down renewable energy growth in the state and need to be addressed. The Assam Renewable Energy Policy 2022 was a timely step to reduce carbon emissions in the electricity sector. However, most investments are still led by state and central government companies and focus on large solar projects. Progress in smaller solar projects and other renewable energy types is slow, and private sector interest is lacking.
The think tank recommends providing detailed, technology-specific policies and guidance for crucial segments like water resource-based renewable energy projects, urban and rural distributed renewable energy (DRE), and biomass. It also urges for the expedited identification of projects, infrastructure support, and clearance facilitation through a digital platform. Additionally, it emphasises the need to implement standard operating procedures to encourage private sector investments.
Mrinal Chaudhury, RE expert and former director at Assam Energy Development Agency, emphasised on Decentralised Renewable Energy (DRE), focusing on rooftop solar. “Assam should prioritise the sustainable development of RE rather than installing large-scale solar PVs on agricultural land solely to benefit the national grid. It’s important to meet national mandates, but achieving self-sufficiency in RE would reduce our reliance on the national grid anyway, which is largely dependent on thermal power.” Assam has the potential to be self-sufficient in achieving the mandated RE targets, he added.
This article is republished from Mongabay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.